Trump’s exit from US presidency has resulted to these kind of news flooding the media. Few days back Mahatma Gandhi’s statue was desecrated in US. I am sure we will hear more such news down the line. The damage is done.

The Military junta has staged coup in Myanmar and have announced to rule the nation for a year, no one knows how long they will stay in power. Military dictatorships least care to keep their promises.

Myanmar was under military rule from 1962 to 2010. After 2010, though the military relinquished power, but devised means for keeping a control over political power from the background. The Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) retain significant control of the government under the 2008 constitution. 25% of seats in the Parliament of Myanmar are reserved for serving military officers. The ministries of home, border affairs and defense have to be headed by a serving military officer. The military also appoints one of the country’s two vice presidents. Hence, the country’s civilian leaders have little influence over the security establishment.

It is difficult to amend the constitution. Proposed changes to most parts of the constitution must be approved by more than 75% of both houses of the Assembly of the Union. For some others it must do so then go to a referendum. When the referendum is held, the changes must be approved by at least 50% of the registered voters, rather than 50% of those voting. This ensures that the civilian govt. can do little to change the constitution and reduce the role of military.

Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is a party backed by Military. National League for Democracy (NLD) is a party headed by Aung San Suu Kyi and is a party championing for democratic set up, it is also a right wing party. Due to the number of military nominated members and USDP, the NLD finds it tough to pass tougher laws.

What happens in 2020? The NLD gets landslide victory(USDP loses vote share) with record vote share in elections. It comes to the position of making laws which could reduce the power of military. The military stages a coup alleging irregularities in elections, arrests all big leaders and declares one year of emergency though the election authorities had said that the elections were proper.

What will be the impact on India?

  1. China has been engaging heavily with Myanmar and making attempts to take over Myanmar to its own sphere of influence. Why? Because, access to Myanmar will also give China access to Bay of Bengal. And if that happens India will lose the leverage it has over China because of the Andaman & Nicobar Islands near the straits of Malacca
  2. China has so far not criticized the coup and the military leaders had met the China’s foreign minister after the NLD landslide victory.
  3. The Myanmar Military is corrupt, it is quite possible that the Military junta Govt may take loans from China, siphon it off(just like the Pakistan army) and would push Myanmar to a Chinese debt trap.

Hence, it is important for India to ensure democratic forces remain powerful in Myanmar and the influence of military is reduced.

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