Now I am not a person who takes opinion polls too seriously. But as a guy whose day job is to deal with data and consumer sentiments and doing trend analysis, surveys like these have a distinct use for political parties.
- Political surveys help parties [ all parties] on the ground see a mirror on how their leadership is perceived by the public.
- Surveys show which areas the public appreciates your policies and what policies are considered a failure.
- Surveys help you confirm if you need to change your strategy or not.
MOTN Survey conducted by India Today [a relatively neutral channel] for the month of Jan 2022 and the findings were released yesterday. We also have to remember these surveys were conducted at a time when the petrol prices are high, food inflation is high and a third wave of COVID raging.
If the elections were held today, then NDA is likely to be in a slender majority, but the UPA does not seem to gain significantly. However- BJP can lose the privilege of being a single largest majority and forced to form a coalition.
Compared to last time the number of people who are satisfied with the overall performance has gone up. However the same holds true for people who are not satisfied as well. This means people are fast taking stands and not content with being “neutral” in their politics.
On who is suited to be the next PM, Modi has 53% popularity as opposed to 24% in Aug 2021.
On the current crop of Opposition leaders, Mamata and Kejriwal come on top, above Rahul Gandhi.
The biggest success of Modi Govt. has been the COVID pandemic handling , while the biggest failure is price rice and unemployment.
What do these things tell?
- The people have not completely rejected Modi / BJP and still believe he can deliver as the PM
- Despite growing voices in the Opposition, overall popularity of Modi has increased.
- Amongst the non-BJP leaders, Rahul Gandhi is still the third preferred choice over Mamata and Kejriwal.
- COVID handling and vaccination seems to have a positive impact despite the tragedy of the second wave. So the government redeemed itself.
- However- people have serious concerns on the state of jobs, food inflation and petrol price- things which government needs to focus on.
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