Most of us may not have forgotten Oli’s acts like:

  1. Changing the Nepal’s map to include Indian territories like Kalapani etc.
  2. Making statement like “India’s national emblem should not contain satyameva Jayate but rather shimeva jayate” implying that India is behaving more like a lion as depicted in our emblem and “Indian Corona virus is more dangerous than China’s corona virus” etc.

But now he has started praising India. Lets understand what is the historic background, the reasons behind the change in Mr. K.P. Oli and how India should react.

We have been committing mistakes on our Nepal policy for a very long time.

  1. Nepal wanted to a part of India which Nehruji denied and that was fatal mistake.
  2. During the tenure of Sonia Gandhi, we let China encircle us on many fronts. Same happened with Nepal. The Nepali Monarchy was abolished during this period only. Nepali monarchy had been pro India due to various cultural and historic reasons.
  3. Also, during the tenure of Sonia Gandhi, communists became powerful in Nepal. We have seen the Nepali communist party has been openly pro china and anti India.

Lets understand why is Oli has started becoming soft towards India.

  1. First, Oli has become extremely unpopular due to mishandling COVID, corruption and pro-china policies. China has itself become very unpopular in Nepal, and due to may reasons. China has started grabbing Nepal’s land. China’s ambassador openly interferes in Nepal’s politics, directs top executive of Nepal (which is really unheard of). Corruption has been high, people voted for communists with the hope that they will provide stability but Nepal has become much more unstable after the abolition of monarchy. Oli’s anti India stance has a role to play also. Centuries old Indo-Nepal ties is too strong to be destroyed so quickly. Lets not forget that Mother Sita was a Nepali. Recently, there have been many protests demanding to restore the monarchy.
  2. In the Communist party apart from Oli there is also another leader named Prachanda. Oli was leading the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist, and Prachanda represented the Nepal Communist Party (Maoist). Following the merger, the two leaders agreed that they would lead the government by turn, a promise that Oli did not honor at the end of his two-and-a-half years, thus sowing the seeds of separation. Now Oli has dissolved the parliament and he has been appointed by the caretaker PM by the President.
  3. Here comes the role of China. After Oli has become unpopular, china wants to dump him and (may be) bring back Prachanda so that the communist party doesn’t split. After losing China’s backing, Oli has become friendly to India for survival. As we can see, recently, many high ranking Indian officials have been visiting Nepal.

What should India do?

  1. First, Oli is extending hands of friendship as China has dumped him and started backing his rival. We must not deny that hand and use it to our advantage.
  2. Please note, after the unified communist party, the next largest party is the Nepali Congress which is a center left party. There is also another political party called “Rashtriya Prajatantra Party(RPP)” which is a pro-monarchy, center right Hindu party. By bartering with Oli and providing him some help(to retain power for some more time) , India should try to have RPP come to power of its own or(may be) in a coalition with other small parties, with the Nepali congress being the main opposition. With China and the communists being so unpopular this is the right time to strike hard at the communists.
  3. After pro-monarchists come to power India should ensure that the amendments to constitution is such that “absolute monarchy” is not restored but Nepal moves to a “parliamentary monarchy” with parliament and council of ministers wielding actual power and the monarch being more of a figure head. This will ensure that monarchy doesn’t become corrupt and hence will never be used as a plea by communists’ to come back to power again. Second, Nepal should remain a secular country like India.

Last but not the least, Nepal is extremely strategic to India. Hence, we should play our cards to ensure that Nepal is not colonialized by China. In nutshell, we should not let Nepal become another Pakistan which is a de-facto a Chinese colony.

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