A report from the United States has claimed that nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan might engage in a large-scale war unwittingly, even as they would like to avoid military hostility.
I do agree with the report fully. India and Pakistan (with direct or indirect support of China) will eventually fight a war.
And, my most intelligent guess is India will fight China/Pakistan on one Issue and that’s “Gilgit Baltistan“.
Refer to the map. Gilgit-Baltistan is the northernmost region of Jammu and Kashmir which is currently occupation of Pakistan officially (but China has many troops stationed there. And China is also undertaking many projects in Gilgit-Baltistan). Gilgit-Baltistan shares a nearly 130km border with Afghanistan. The territory is India’s illegally occupied by Pakistan/China.
Most of us know the grave blunder Nehruji did by not capturing the whole of Kashmir. But that’s history and lets not delve in to that. In this article we will discuss what India (and the world) will gain if India captures Gilgit-Baltistan.
Gilgit-Baltistan will give India access to Afghanistan. If India today has to reach Afghanistan, it has to go through Iran which is being difficult due to US sanctions on Iran. Plus, Iran is getting more and more aligned with China as of to-date. India cannot reach Afghanistan through Pakistan due to obvious reasons.
What will India gain by sharing direct border with Afghanistan.
- India will get direct access to Afghanistan market and vice versa. Not only that, India has a very cordial relation with Afghanistan. Hence, through Afghanistan, India can reach entire Central Asia and even Europe by rail and roads. Though the Gilgit-Baltistan region is mountainous, with advancement of technologies, tunnels can be drilled and road/rail lines can be built through them.
- With Modi Govt’s policies, India will become a manufacturing powerhouse in near future and will need markets for finished products. And here Afghanistan will be one such market and provide a transit point for other central Asian markets.
- It is said Afghanistan has trillions of dollars worth of Mines. If India reaches Afghanistan directly, then the mines will be exploited which is set to benefit both India and Afghanistan. India will be direct purchaser of the minerals. And the minerals can reach outside world through India, so that Afghanistan doesn’t have to depend on Pakistan.
- Due to all these, Islamic radicalization will greatly reduce and Afghani people who are dependent on drugs for their living will move away to better sources of employment.
- Many Indian industries who are dependent on Gas are unable to flourish due to lack of Gas. If India shares a direct border with Afghanistan, then natural gas from Central Asian nations like, Tajikistan etc. can reach India through Afghanistan by pipelines. Now, Gas is moved by road to ports in Iran, then get carried over by ships which increases cost and time. This will benefit the Central Asian countries financially, Afghanistan will collect transit fees and India will get Gas for its industries. After Modi Govt. came to power the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline was visualized, but India is going slow due to dependence on Pakistan. If India has a easy/cheap source of natural gas(through pipelines which will pass through Gilgit-Baltistan), India will become a global production hub for things like fertilizers, chemicals, pesticides etc. India currently imports fertilizers.
- This will also reduce our dependence on countries like Saudi, Russia etc. as more vehicles will run on Gas rather than Petrol. And Gas is cheaper than petrol.
- China and Pakistan will not share a border any more. We know that China is the main backing force behind the Kashmir problem. With China not being able to reach Pakistan directly, Kashmir problem will become history.
- CPEC (China Pakistan economic corridor) will be permanently terminated. China cannot reach Arabian sea through Gilgit-Baltistan-Pakistan route(which China is considering an alternate to straits of Malacca). That will give India to dominate China strategically.
- India will be able to nullify Chinese Influence on Afghanistan. China shares a direct border with Afghanistan where as India not.
- With Afghan people becoming economically prosperous, it will become peaceful and hence, the entire world including US and other NATO nations don’t have to worry about Afghanistan.
Hence, as we can see, capturing Gilgit-Baltistan will be a game changer for India. And, I don’t think this would happen without a war, blood and lives.
But, for greater interest of the nation, and long term benefits, wars need to be fought. Just think, what would have been India’s situation had Bangladesh still been a part of Pakistan. We fought a war, freed Bangladesh, and that’s why India’s eastern border is peaceful.
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