Only Time knows! But making a permutation of possibility is art. Only blind can refuse to see the future.
Afghanistan has poor geography with too many deserts and mountains. Absolutely inhospitable for a population of nearly 3.5 cr. Last two decades it has been surviving on foreign aid and donations. World felt this country could govern itself. You have no agriculture, no industry, no service or export for revenue and yet opulence of Afghan politicians matches the best in the world.
Cultivating Opium is one area where it tops the world. Imagine the future ahead.
Next is international relations. Can you imagine a place of such fanaticism in the present set up of International politics? Treatment of minorities, humane right records and status of women could be worse than Somalia in coming days. So forget any international integration any more.
The presence of Pakistan as its neighbours favored all through logistically and ideologically to Taliban. It is no secret to the world. It is the stupidity of intellectuals who use the best words to conceal this truth. And they have been quite successful. But Taliban belongs to none. Not to their Pakistani master as well. The Pashtun as a group is resurging. It is a threat to Pakistan who has marginalized both Baloch and Pashtun for many decades. The North West frontier has great admiration for the Taliban. They are icons and role models. The Pakistani military is aware of the emerging challenge along the Durand Border. And it is set to be a combined civil and military confrontation. Can Pakistan survive a civil war with a begging bowl before the world? If the USSR could not, no reason to refuse the outcome here as well.
The Shia, Uzbek, Hazara Tajik etc are almost 40 percent of Afghanistan’s population. Central Asian countries are watching the evolving situation with restlessness. Their worry is refugees in their land. Hoping against the odds, they anticipate a peaceful coexistence for these ethnic minorities with Sunni Pashtun. The history speaks otherwise. Central Asian countries had to decide their strategy sooner than later.
Who knows, the balkanization of both Pakistan and Afghanistan happens together. It is the presence of smaller states that can bring some sense of order in this area.
And in the last, Development or destruction in Afghanistan. You have chosen destruction. Today Afghanistan houses the best Road, building Dams, airports and hospitals. Entire world was funding this nation for 2 decades. Countries as poor as India also contributed 3 – 4 Billion dollars. And what do you expect in the next one year? A chaos, loot and savage destruction of every brick of development that happened in the previous 2 decades. Yes it is obvious.
Agree, The Taliban has been offered a script and they are playing by the script so far. Women and kids are always innocent in every battle in history and yet they pay the bloodiest price of time. No mercy again, No one would hear the lonely cry in the desert and Mountain.
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