The fight in UP is mainly between BJP and SP, with the BSP struggling for survival on its own and small parties like Congress and AIMIM taking crucial votes.

The things that would play an important role in the elections-

  • Yogi rule
    • Growth of GSDP; dip in unemployment rate from 17% in 2017 to 4% in 2021.
    • Decrease in crime rate; no riots in UP since 2017.
    • Sugar and sugarcane production has been high
    • Construction of toilets (2.61 crore) for villages has been highest
    • Establishment of MSMEs, providing government jobs and employment, establishment of women help desk at police stations.
    • Infrastructural development, electronic city- Noida
    • Cow protection
    • Ram Mandir, and other Hindu centric issues
    • Only second wave management has been an issue in Yogi rule.
  • Social arithmetic
    • The population is 21% Upper Caste, 9% Yadav, 31% non-Yadav OBCs, 19% Muslims, 11% Jatav Dalits and 9% non-Jatav Dalits.
    • 90% Upper castes and 2/3rd of the non-Yadav OBCs are going to be with the BJP. 1/3rd of non-Jatav vote will go to BJP. This takes the BJP to atleast 41% vote share.
    • Yadav and the remaining 1/3rd OBC vote goes to SP, along with 1/2 Muslim vote, which takes it to at max. 28% vote share.
    • Now, BSP s likely to get the Jatav vote, 1/2 non-Jatav vote and very less Muslim vote. Its vote is likely to be 16%.
    • Congress , will get nothing more than 5–6% vote, that too coming from the fragmented shares. I am keen to see whether it can even win all seats of its bastion- Rae Bareily.
    • Other parties like AIMIM, Peace Party etc. can get remaining vote.

So, ONLY by social arithmetic , this is what vote share looks like-

 

BJP- 41%

SP- 28%

BSP-16%

INC-6%

Others-9%

 

Looking at these vote shares, BSP is being decimated which will hurt BJP in some seats. Still, BJP , with respect to social arithmetic, can be anywhere between 270 to 320 seats.

  • Ticket distribution and campaign
    • Have a look here-

Vote Share in 2021 Panchayat Polls(pan-UP)

BJP : 25.1%

SP : 24.6%

BSP : 11.5%

INC : 2.4%

OTH : 36.4%

Now, in others, 40–45% are BJP rebels. So it would be safe to say BJP’s net vote share is almost 39%.

    • Most of the votes were taken away from BJP in local elections by rebels who were denied a ticket. In 2019 Haryana, rebels spoilt the game for BJP as they cut a lot of votes and 5 of them even ended up winning. and the same could repeat in 2022 UP, if BJP state unit doesn’t field candidates wisely. I hope it doesn’t rope in any foolish superstars like it did in Bengal.
    • Now, campaigning. BJP will put their complete life into the election because if the BJP doesn’t win 325 out of the 403 seats, then its strength in Rajya Sabha will fall as it has already lost many states. Secondly, BJP+RSS+VHP combine has a huge ground level and booth level base in UP. This again gives BJP an advantage.

Had the second wave not come, BJP could have crossed 300 seats. But now, I feel this could be the possible result-

Total -403, majority-202

BJP- 270

SP- 95

BSP-15

INC-5

RLD- 10

Others- 8

BJP is likely to form the government easily. SP doesn’t have the capability to even get 30% vote(it never has) yet tontichor Akhilesh thinks he will form government. BJP should be thankful that there’s no Mahagathbandhan this time around.

The BJP is standing like a rock on one side, while the anti-BJP vote looks set to be divided into three groups- SP, BSP and other parties like Congress.

P. S. :- Many people are saying that anti-Bjp vote will consolidate like Bengal. But that will not happen due to caste factor. Dalits hesitated to vote for SP candidates in 2019 even when BSP and SP were in alliance. Hence, Dalit votes are not going to go to SP at any cost. Secondly, Muslim vote will also get divided because every party has their own local level leader. Its very hard to consolidate Muslim votes too.

As per ABP-C VOTER survey :-

How satisfied are you with Yogi?

– Very satisfied- 46%

– Satisfied to some extent-21.5%

– Total satisfaction- 67.5%

– Dissatisfied-32%

This proves that BJP can easily get 40% vote.

 

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER: The author is solely responsible for the views expressed in this article. The author carries the responsibility for citing and/or licensing of images utilized within the text.