Back in October 2024, I wrote an opinion piece predicting that Donald Trump’s return to power wouldn’t necessarily be a blow to India, contrary to what some critics and experts claimed. Among other issues, I argued that while Trump’s protectionist policies might seem harsh at first glance, they could actually open the floodgates of opportunity for India. Fast-forward to April 2025, and it’s all unfolding like clockwork.

Trump has just slapped a crushing 125% tariff on Chinese imports. This wasn’t out of the blue, it was a direct counterstrike to China’s retaliation to his earlier reciprocal tariffs. But here’s where things get interesting: countries that didn’t retaliate, like ours, have been rewarded. Tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. have been slashed to just 10% for a 90-day window, and that could well become a permanent fixture if we play our cards right.

President Trump’s Post On Truth Social

To the casual observer, this might look like a basic trade tit-for-tat. But anyone with a long-term view knows this is game theory on steroids. By choosing not to retaliate against Trump’s earlier tariffs, Modi’s government showed strategic restraint, staying calm, and channeling quiet diplomacy with economic foresight.

And look where we are now. India is on the right side of this tariff war. Meanwhile, China’s export machine may bleed from this self-inflicted wound. For American companies looking to avoid the cost of doing business in China, the logic is now simple: relocate. And where do they go? The U.S.? Too expensive. Vietnam? Close to China and still communist. Bangladesh? Political chaos. The answer becomes obvious—India.

We offer everything a global manufacturer needs: cheap labor, improving infrastructure, a vast domestic market, and now, favorable tariffs into the biggest consumer economy in the world. Add to that political stability, a booming startup scene, and a Prime Minister who understands how to turn geopolitical currents into national gains.

Just look at Apple. They’ve already moved significant production to India, and this trend will only accelerate. Trump’s tariffs may just be the accelerant India needed to truly become the world’s factory floor. This is where Modi’s governance and Trump’s trade war become unlikely allies.

But the opportunity isn’t automatic—it’s a golden ticket that must be cashed in. The next step? Doubling down on reforms to improve the Ease of Doing Business (EODB). We’ve already come a long way, but this is the moment to slash red tape, fast-track approvals, and shout from every rooftop that India is open for business. Trump is already encouraging friend-shoring—prioritizing trade with allies rather than rivals. India must make itself the best friend in that equation.

India Must Capitalize On America’s Friend-Shoring!

This is also a time for the opposition to eat a little humble pie. Remember how certain leaders and commentators, mocked India’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine war? At Raisina Dialogue this year, even Tharoor admitted he had egg on his face. Now, those same critics must reckon with the fact that not retaliating to Trump’s tariffs was the smarter move, unlike what they were pushing for: retaliation, chest-thumping, and short-term political signalling. Instead, we chose strategic patience over provocation, opting for long-term positioning rather than reactive posturing.

Gen Z might be wondering- what’s in this for us? The answer is simple: jobs, innovation, and relevance. A boom in manufacturing means more factories, more tech integration, more demand for engineers, designers, coders, and managers. It means India becomes more than just a market, it becomes a maker!

So let the cynics talk. Modi understood timing. Trump understands leverage. And together, whether coordinated or coincidental, they’ve created a major opening for India to level up.

Now it’s our turn to seize it!

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