On the morning of March 10, 2022, all eyes of the nation will be glued to the TV screens to see the poll results. Out of five states, two states are the most important – Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. It’s a famous saying that one who rules UP rules India. While UP poll results will give a hint about the nation’s mood for the upcoming 2024 general elections, Punjab poll results will tell us about the impact of the Farmers protest. The EVM machines will decide the fate of 1304 candidates of Punjab on March 10. Like the pre-poll surveys, the post-poll surveys also give a clear majority to AAP. The political pundits and the politicians reject these surveys because the sample size is relatively small. For an ideal survey, the sample size should be at least 10% of the total voters who voted. But in reality, all the surveys have been conducted with a sample size of only 10,000 to 15,000. 

The Case Study of West Bengal Elections

The West Bengal Assembly elections 2021 were conducted in eight phases from March 27 March to April 29, 2021. The pre-poll results were as follows: 

PRE POLL BENGAL ELECTIONS 2021
Organization AITC+ BJP+ SANJUKTO MORCHA OTHERS
Times Now – CVoter 146-162 99-112 29-37 0
India News – Jan Ki Baat 118-134 150-162 N/A 0
ABP News – CVoter 150-166 98-114 23-31 3-5
ABP Ness – CNX 154-164 102-112 22-30 1-3

 

The Post – Poll Surveys conducted by various news channels and organizations were : 

POST POLL BENGAL ELECTIONS 2021
Organization AITC+ BJP+ SANJUKTO MORCHA OTHERS
ETG Research 164-176 105-115 15-18 0
CNN News 18 162 115 15 0
ABP News – CVoter 152-164 109-121 14-25 0
Times Now – CVoter 158 115 21 0
Republic – CNX 128-138 138-148 0 0
PMARQ 152-172 112-132 20-21 0

Actual Results of the Bengal Assembly Elections 2021: 

ACTUAL RESULTS
AITC+ BJP+ RSMPA IND
213 77 1 1

Let’s Do the Analysis of the Bengal Surveys: 

For All India Trinamool Congress, there was a difference of only two seats between the pre-poll and post-poll surveys, a difference of 63 seats between the actual results and pre-poll survey, and 61 seats between the actual results and the post-poll surveys! 

For Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), there was a difference of 11 seats between the pre-poll and post-poll surveys, a difference of 21 seats between the actual results and pre-poll survey, and a difference of 32 seats between the actual results and the post-poll surveys! 

Why do The Surveys fail to Give a Clear image?

The pre-poll surveys are an excellent tactic to change the mood of voters. Many advocates, activists, and even politicians have demanded a ban on pre-poll surveys. This is because all voters are not so literate and don’t know about the issues, about manifesto promises, and always vote based on their mood. Seeing such surveys can surely bring a swing in the voting patterns. The pre-poll surveys still have a good sample size, but post-poll surveys should not be believed. The only reason is that there is very little time between the last phase of the election in a state and the counting day. So, organizations call political pundits, parties, and people in markets and just roll out the results ASAP! 

Predicting the Results of Punjab

A significant event that every survey has missed is the support of Deras to SAD and BJP. Just 2-3 days before the voting day (February 20, 2022), Deras announced that supporters have to support BJP/SAD. Some deras supported BJP in some areas where BJP has a stronghold, while some deras supported SAD where SAD is strong. The officials of the political wing of the Dera communicate their decisions to the followers through 45 member committees. The common follower conveys the message through Bhangidas made in different villages. According to this decision, Dera supporters cast their votes. Bhangidas are those members of the Dera who are associated with the operation of the stage in the Naam Charchaghar. The names of the Bhangidas of the Charchaghar differ in village and city. Above them is the Bhangidas of the block.

According to sources, Dera has supported from Mor Mandi seat of Malwa region, Aam Aadmi Party in Bathinda, Shiromani Akali Dal in Bathinda Dehat seat, Aam Aadmi Party in Budhladha, Akali Dal in Sardulgarh, BJP in Abohar, Akali Dal in Muktsar, from Sanaur (Patiala) BJP, Punjab Lok Congress from Patiala, has given support to an independent candidate in Talwandi.

The whole Punjab will be on a roller coaster of emotions on March 10. A new government will be formed. A surprising element will also be that the protestors didn’t support any political party throughout the farmer’s protest, but as soon as it finished, hardly anyone supported the SSM party. People of Punjab again chose to vote for the same old political parties. 

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