Scarce Water, Plenty of Crude oil, conflicting ethnicity, territorial defense and competing belief had guided the state policy of the Middle East since the time it is documented. And so relevant till date that even now the emerging axis in the middle-east has not transgressed these established norms.

News that warrants world attention was getting flashed yesterday. King of Morocco one of the direct descendants of Prophet Mohammad other than the King of Jordan declared as to be the sixth nation among Arab countries to have normalized political relationship with Israel. The crude conflict between Jews Muslim or say Arab Israel is as old as civilization. Yet against the popular belief, Arab has queued up to prioritize a new political equation. And it was unheard until now given the Palestine territorial issue and emotional religious identity. What has changed suddenly? 

Dig history a bit and there emerges a brutal bloody triangle of competing ethnicity among Turkey, Persian and Arab. Nearly 1000 years of vicious war among the three decimated the great Persian culture, Turkish nobility and Arab Paganism. A history full of deceit, distrust and violence has not been watered down yet despite Islamic brotherhood.

Today the aspiring Turk under Erdogan to restore Khalifa pride and hardliner Persian for Shia Pride has brought an inevitable conflict at the door step of Arabs. Turks are behaving in the most irresponsible manner. It has proven territorial ambition and military adventurism. Emboldened at its diplomatic stand against Greece, Cyprus, France and Armenia, it is dangerously close to contesting Islamic leadership from traditional Arabs.  It had challenged Arab leadership at its OIC summit also. On the other hand, Iran is driven by its Shia Identity. The Shia Sunni conflict is dated to an era when history was not even written rather orally transmitted. The animosity is unfathomable.

The Covid-19 has broken all the myth of Arab Petro might causing severe strain to the financial stability. The radical Wahhabi and fanatic non-state actors had always been the other threat to kingdom and royalty in the middle-east. The ISIS, Al Qaeda and Taliban are disruptive to any established administrative order. Arab who had bargained for their position against their wealth and religious leadership had long successfully used them as state tools against non-Islamic nations and political adversaries. But now the track has shifted. The danger to Arabic kingdom is lurking from every side.

The strategic defense of Arabic countries had always rested in the hands of trusted western allies. It even allowed them to operate through a permanent military base in their Sovereign country. But an emerging new dispensation in the US is causing the shock wave. The democrats had historically promoted forces against royalty and dictators. The Obama era and Arab spring had nearly destabilized many nations around 2010. Fact that, No established order has replaced those political vacuum, it is absolute anarchy and disturbing internal strife that is prevailing in those countries. Libya is the best example.

Arab nations if scared today are scared for multiple reasons. Poor technology, declining financial health, royal squabbling, deceitful neighbours, distrustful religious fratricidal animosity and withdrawing ally.  Against all the hopes there emerge an eager powerful equipped nation who could prove to be a nemesis against Arabs hostile enemies.

Israel who has not fought a single battle post Yom Kippur 1973 with Arab, Who rather have concentrated only in controlling its Palestine Suzerainty is certainly not much of worry for its Arab neighbours.  Israel considers Iran to be its potential nemesis not Arab. Hezbollah and Hamas are the few operating terrorist groups against Israel. And they largely draw subsistence from Iran. Israel is clear about its objective.

Today territorial defense and ethnic rivalry appears to have taken pole position ahead of religious identity in the Gulf world.  Islamic brotherhood stands divided today. Not that it had never happened earlier, but there had been a considerable gap of time when it happened last. Arab Israel combination is going to stay and embolden the two.

Is war inevitable among the three ethnic identities? Will ethnicity outwit the religious brotherhood? Only Time will script this part of the story.  ​

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