Vietnam gets freedom from France. The communists under Ho-Chi-Minh played a key role in defeating France and Vietnam was about to become communist. US sends its army. USSR provides all training, arms, support to the communist rebels who bleed US. USSR doesn’t send its own army to Vietnam. After fighting for more than ten years US leaves Vietnam and Vietnam is overtaken by communists in just 2 years.

United States, being a democracy learns from the mistake. When USSR captures Afghanistan to establish communism, US did not sent its army. It arms the Mujahid to fight against USSR. USSR bleeds for years, and finally collapses.

USSR (and then Russia) supported a lot of dictatorial governments in middle east. One such example is Syria. The President Mr. Bashar-al-Assad is literally an agent of Russia in Syria and cannot survive without Russian support. Arab spring begins in 2011-12. Common people who were fed up with corrupt Assad Govt, start protesting for his removal. The Govt uses brutal force to suppress the rebellion. The protestors now became rebels. Multiple countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, US arm the rebels. The rebels were just about to overthrow Assad. In this juncture, Russia sends in its army. The Russia has made some progress. But it has not been able to suppress the rebels fully. Syria is devastated, Russia doesn’t have money to reconstruct it. Russia is struck up in Syria in a position where it cannot leave Syria, and staying in Syria is extremely costly as Russia itself is in a big financial mess. I foresee, Syria war will drown Vladimir Putin just as Afghan war destroyed the communists.

I foresee similar will happen in Myanmar.

Myanmar was under military rule from 1962 to 2010. After 2010, though the military relinquished power, but devised means for keeping a control over political power from the background. The Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) retain significant control of the government under the 2008 constitution. 25% of seats in the Parliament of Myanmar are reserved for serving military officers. The ministries of home, border affairs and defense have to be headed by a serving military officer. The military also appoints one of the country’s two vice presidents. Hence, the country’s civilian leaders have little influence over the security establishment. It is difficult to amend the constitution. Proposed changes to most parts of the constitution must be approved by more than 75% of both houses of the Assembly of the Union. For some others it must do so then go to a referendum. When the referendum is held, the changes must be approved by at least 50% of the registered voters, rather than 50% of those voting. This ensures that the civilian govt. can do little to change the constitution and reduce the role of military.

Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is a party backed by Military. National League for Democracy (NLD) is a party headed by Aung San Suu Kyi and is a party championing for democratic set up, it is also a right wing party. Due to the number of military nominated members and USDP, the NLD finds it tough to pass tougher laws.

What happens in 2020? The NLD gets landslide victory(USDP loses vote share) with record vote share in elections. It comes to the position of making laws which could reduce the power of military. The military stages a coup alleging irregularities in elections, arrests all big leaders and declares one year of emergency though the election authorities had said that the elections were proper.

It is rumored that China is behind the military takeover. China never supports democratic governments, it always supports corrupt dictatorial govts. whom they can manipulate and will remain dependent on them. For e.g. Pak Army.

The people have started to protest across Myanmar. The Myanmar Military is finding it difficult to control protests. It has resorted to ruthless use of force. Even kids as young as 1 year are dying of bullets. Now Myanmar Military has started using its Air Force to bomb its citizens.

AND THERE ARE RUMOURS OF REBELS STARTING TO ARM THEMSELVES TO FIGHT THE MILITARY.

What will happen next?

  1. We have seen in Vietnam/Afghanistan/Syria, a professional army can never defeat a militia(who typically use Guerilla tactics). Hence, Myanmar Military will gradually drain out.
  2. US, EU have started imposing sanctions on companies having links with Myanmar Military. This will gradually weaken the financial muscle of Myanmar Military.
  3. After Myanmar Military weakens, I foresee China will first support the Myanmar Military from outside.
  4. But, as happened in Syria, China will send its armed forced to Myanmar and get struck in Myanmar just as Russia got stuck in Afghanistan.
  5. And finally, Myanmar war will result to Communists becoming unpopular in China and will finally collapse.
  6. Just as USSR had brutally subjugated non-Russians to stay with it who got separated after the Afghan war, China has done the same thing for the non-Han Chinese. I foresee, China will get split eventually.

What India needs to do in such situation?

  1. Answer is: do nothing. Just remain silent and watch.
  2. Whenever rebels get weak, keep giving them lifelines, so that they don’t sink.
  3. Coordinate with China’s enemies like US, EU on Myanmar policy.

Thinking more about it, karma has ultimately punished China. China wanted India remain entangled in Kashmir for ever. Now I see, due to steps taken by Modiji, Kashmir has become peaceful, where as China will get entangled in its own Kashmir or Afghanistan or Vietnam in Myanmar.

But, in the great power game that will follow, the biggest losers will be the common poor people of Myanmar.

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