Psephological Analysis of UP Elections

Let me analyse it psephologically,

Note : I almost predicted correctly that TMC will win in West Bengal (while many predicted bjp’s win), my prediction was also correct for tamilnadu(DMK‘s win), Kerala (Communists victory), Puducherry (NDA’s chances for the first time) and Assam (NDA victory).

Uttar Pradesh, always follow caste based election- they don’t have any regional identity like that of West Bengal or Tamil Nadu. Since it has more population, more seats – UP plays important role in politics of India.

As per election history – UP never had a same consecutive governments for long time . This itself will favour SP alliance which is the main competitor of BJP . Will BJP break this cycle? (Or will it succumb to it?)

Let me just clear that the main fight is between SP alliance and BJP only, Congress won’t get more than 5–6% and BSP‘s votes share is decreasing (it will get its core votes share around 18%).

Before analysing psephologically let’s see the caste wise distribution of UP –

SP will definitely get Yadav votes and definitely most Muslims (80%) will vote to SP unitedly because BSP is not in the competition and many Muslims already undergone BJP‘s rule for 5 years and definitely they will vote unitedly to one party which is most likely will be SP – BJP depends on votes split of Muslims between SP and BSP – if this happens bjp will have an edge but I don’t think it will happen this time . So SP will definitely get around 22–25% for sure (core voter base).

This scenario is a normal one but in this extraordinary scenario of covid pandemic definitely BJP will face anti incumbency. This pandemic will affect BJP in this election for sure.

Now we will analyse the past elections.

SP got maximum votes share under Akhilesh Yadav in 2012 around 29% and the least votes share in assembly elections is around 21.82% in 2017 – from this its assured that SP will definitely get around 25–28% for sure. So the anti incumbency of sp made 7% decrease from 2012 to 2017 elections.

BJP’s massive success in UP was because of Modi and Ram mandir. Now that RAM mandir issue has been successfully over but Modi’s popularity has bit declined from 2019 (after his second victory).

Farm laws will definitely affect a portion of Jaats who will definitely not vote for BJP this time in western UP whom SP is attracting (Jaats voted bjp massively in last election). Though I am not sure, they will vote overwhelmingly for SP.

This is an assembly election not Lok Sabha election, so state issues will matter. Now this is the first time UP BJP is facing under Yogi. Though Modi magic will favour BJP but his popularity won’t help much in Assembly elections.

BJP got maximum in assembly elections in up around 39.67%, but it skyrocketed in Lok Sabha elections to 49.98% in 2019. So this clearly shows there is a dip in state election compared to Lok Sabha election in UP.

If we further go back to 2007 , BSP got around 30.43% votes share but in 2012 it’s 26% and in 2017 it’s 22% – so no way BSP is going to get more than this votes share intact it will get around 18%+-2% only. The more BSP losing relevance the more anti BJP votes will consolidate behind SP. Remember 22% are Dalits this means the core votes of BSP is eroding. Some would be split between SP and BJP and BJP would be at advantage here.

Now the recent Panchayat election gave us an idea that BJP is not so strong currently- this means it can be defeated, but for that anti BJP votes should not split. Recent loses of BJP including Bengal elections created a perception that bjp is facing setback – this perception will play a big role in upcoming elections. Further Yogi Adityanath’s handling of pandemic in UP will definitely affect it a bit.

Every UP voter now will remember about their lives under past regimes marred with hooligans, lack of electricity and other law and order issues before voting than remembering Ram mandir and other hindutva planks. Jats will think of Farm Laws and Muslims will unite under one opposition this time. If at all the core votes of BSP shifts slowly to SP then BJP should worry, but this doesn’t seems to be the scenario.

So the factors which favours SP will be anti incumbency (the alternative cycle trend in UP), complete Muslim consolidation, jats consolidation against BJP, erosion of core votes of BSP , pandemic handling of BJP.

Factors favouring BJP – Modi, Yogi (but this is his first time the party is facing election under him, so it remains to be seen), natural cadre support along with RSS, Ram mandir.

As of now there is no big alliance announced yet – if SP had contested along with BSP (MGB) it would had been tricky for BJP but as it didn’t happen and SP is relying more on erosion of BSP’s core voters, which doesn’t seem to be happening.

The more BSP will lose the more BJP would gain the Dalit votes and the more SP will gain the Muslim votes. BJP’s is hopeful of anti BJP votes getting split and hope another wave doesn’t hits UP during the elections – the more severe the waves hits the people the more the people would remember those pandemic days. Already Bengal election results and panchayat election results gave a perception that bjp is losing its turf, so this perception may favour opposition in upcoming elections.

Generally ruling party wins the panchayat elections the results were definitely an eye opener for BJP.

It can be a close fight between BJP and SP in some parts of UP (not a cakewalk for bjp this time unlike 2017 but is expected to cross the majority).

The more Sp makes itself as pan UP party it can attract other community votes – though shifting of Dalits votes to sp is sceptical but if that happens then bjp will face tough Time .

As already mentioned SP lost around 7% in assembly elections as anti incumbency loss when we apply this psephologically to bjp then bjp will get around 32% now with this bjp is facing pandemic effect which will decrease its votes share further.

Bjp got maximum in assembly elections in up around 39.67% but it skyrocketed in Lok Sabha elections to 49.98% in 2019 . So this clearly shows there is a dip in state election compared to Lok Sabha election in up .

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