Saffron Surge in Manipur

In February & March, we are again approaching an election season in India, this time we have a big catch of Uttar Pradesh along with the small states like Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa & Manipur. The national media covered all the mainland Indian states with least focus on Manipur, Why no one is talking about the Manipur? On the basis of the opinion pools across all the major networks BJP has been given a clear pass in Manipur. We see the summary of the major opinion polls in the chart below

It is a clear majority in Manipur as per the opinion poll results. But has it been that easy? In a hilly terrain & valley wherein the peace & tranqulity were difficult to achieve, How has it been that the BJP established itself as a strong party that can beat the anti incumbency & emerge as a clear winner in the opinion polls

Law & order & Developments are the major planks on which BJP goes after as soon as it assumes power in any state. 5 years back when BJP got a majority in Manipur, it has challenges of last mile delivery & also the insurgency being a border state. In last term the frequent tensions between non-tribal dominated Imphal valley & the tribal dominated hilly regions has reduced to nothing & the regular blockades of roads & highways has been a thing of the post.

The last 5 years has brought the people closure to realising the dream of progressive Manipur with the Government that works for the people & gives responsible administration & responsive towards the needs of the common Manipuri.

The introduction of inner line permit for the state of Manipur was a welcome change. The people in Manipur are becoming aspirational & wants Manipur to be progressive & prosperous state. Such change in attitude of the locals has made a significant gain for people of Manipur.

Manipur being at the center of the India’s entry to the ASEAN countries by road, the major projects that could change the face of this region are The India – Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway & Trans Asian rail network will pass through the city of Moreh in Manipur. Once these projects progress, the region will see the change that was not even imagined in last seven decades.

Chart on Vote Percentage in last 3 assembly elections

The vote share that is expected in Manipur elections 2022 opinion polls will be 41% for the BJP & 30% for Congress. The table shows that BJP has been able to consolidate the smaller parties & Independents before 2017 & in 2022, it seems the consolidation is becoming more solid. This ensures that BJP is establishing its strong hold in one of the remote Northeast State.

The appointment of Ms Adhikarimayum sharda Devi to be the President of the BJP Manipur who has risen through the ranks of cadres since last one decade. The Meitie’s have been a strong supporters of BJP & continue to remain a strong vote bank. Manipuri singers Kaiku & Uttam have recently joined BJP, so the celebrity connect has become a consolidation plank, BJP has also announced the candidates for all the seats & there have been murmurs & discontent which is a usual problem quite often seen during the election times. The congress is not able to take the advantage of this discontent, in fact these discontented candidates are being absorbed by JDU & NPF who are partners of BJP across the entire North East. So much of the benefit of being a part of the North East Democratic alliance created by BJP under the leadership of Himanta Biswa Sarma.

This clearly makes BJP Manipur unit a formidable & strong organisation that do not see any opposition in returning to the power.

What does this mean for the Hindus & the Sanatan warriors of North East, Has Manipur became the saffron dot in the region that has been affected by forceful conversions, Insurgencies since 1947.. This wave is expected to spread across the neighbouring states. Meghalaya & Nagaland will the states to look out for the expansion of BJP’s organisations in near future. The spread of BJP in North East has taken a foothold & now needs to move up making BJP a number 1 or 2 party in Meghalaya & Nagaland, on the contrary Mizoram will be a long term project for BJP. The party can aim to be the equal partner in next Nagaland elections in 2023 while Meghalaya should show some signs of improved vote share in Shillong & Khasi & Garo hills.

We do expect the NEDA to continue to be in power for years to come & make North East one with Bharat & let the tribal & the urban areas reclaim its identity.

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