The History!

  • In 9th century both these countries were part of the Kievan Rus which was the home to the Slavics. During 980-1015 this region was ruled by Grand Prince Volodimer, this is Vladimir in Russian and Volodymyr in Ukrainian and by fate these are the names of the current presidents of the fighting countries.
  • 1900’s – In 1922, the Soviet Union was founded and Russia was the most powerful country of the soviet republic and Ukraine was the 2nd most powerful country.
  • 1991 – Soviet Union Collapsed, the independent Ukraine took most of the Soviet’s nuclear arsenal.
  • 1994 – The Budapest Memorandum, the nuclear arsenal was given by Ukraine to Russia in exchange of the promise from Russia guaranteeing their security.
  • 2013 – The then president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych being a pro Moscow rejected the EU trade deal and took a $15 Billion bailout from Russia. This deal is sometimes mentioned as Submission of Ukraine to Russia.

This 2013 agreement resulted in huge protest, commonly known as EUROMAIDAN. The Western countries supported the protestors and Russia backed Yanuko.

  • Feb 2014 – Yanuko fled to Russia, Russia being furious over this invaded Crimea which was a special autonomy state (just like our Kashmir before 370 was revoked) and deployed its military there.
  • 2014 – Crimea voted to be a part of Russia.
  • July 17th, 2014 – A Malaysian airline carrying 298 people was shot down by the separatists in Donbas.

This resulted in an attack from the Ukrainian forces on the separatists who when started losing the ground got support from the Russian Army who invaded Donbas and fought with the rebels by their side. This increased Russian military’s ground in Ukraine.

  • 2014 – Minsk Agreement was signed which concluded in 13 points but majorly encouraged Russia and Ukraine to withdraw military and also hold elections in rebel held areas by Ukraine. This is still unimplemented.

 

Ukraine wants to join NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) as it claims that NATO is interested in supporting Kyiv financially and with forces which will prevent any full scale attack by Russia on it. Putin does not want this to happen.

Putin in action!!

  • December 2021 – Troops and military equipment were stationed near Ukraine, visible from the satellite images.
Source – Wall Street Journal
  • Early Jan ’22 – 1,00,000 rounds fired in Ukraine.
  • Early February – Missile launchers brought in Belarus(map above will help understating the geographical location) , Military tensed in Crimea and Additional Artillery units deployed in Western Russia.

  • Whole of Jan, Feb – Moscow denies any attack on Ukraine, claiming this deployment of forces is just a training drill. At this stage military experts were pretty sure that this settlement was no practice and this is the preparation of a full fledged war which will be started by Russia anytime soon. Satellite images proved their theories where the melting of ice is clearly visible which meant use of heaters in the camps.
  • February 24th – Russia declares WAR and launches missiles.

Ukraine during this period was busy calling for help from the NATO and claiming that it has expanded its military and has trained its people to fight for Ukraine whenever the need arises.

What is NATO doing?

US and other european nations have slapped Russia with sanctions and are doing their best to cut Russia off the worlds economy. Some of these sanctions are :-

  1. Blacklisting of the major banks of Russia.
  2. Stopping the Nord Stream which is a gas pipeline running from Russia to Germany.
  3. Halting the imports from and exports to Russia.
  4. No buying of Russian Bonds.

The upcoming expected sanctions are :-

  1. Cutting Russia from Dollars resulting a crash of the Russian Economy.
  2. Prohibit any business with the Russian economy.
  3. Stop all the exports of technology to Russia, as Russia imports most of the electronics and chips from countries like South Korea, US etc.

Moscow is prepared!!

Moscow says that the county is ready and prepared for the sanctions. Russia has lived with it, has experienced sanctions before (in 2014, 2016) and has made itself sanction proof by moving away from Western Economies. It has been using various tools like :-

  • De-Dollarization – Russia has reduced share of dollars in transaction in Oil and Gas sales and has been using other currencies.
  • Big Savings Account – Russia has asked its countrymen to open big savings account. In December only, $630 Billion was saved by the Russian people in the form of Gold and Currency which is 1/3rd of the entire economy of Russia. This money can be used in times of War.
  • Make the economy self independent.
  • Increase cooperation with China.

Even with the preventive measures by their side, Russian share market saw 45% fall today, which is huge. India is experiencing a decline too.

Hope for the BEST and Prepare for the WORST!!

Note: I finished writing this blog on Feb 25th,2022 at 1000 hrs. Things happening after this will be covered in another article.

DISCLAIMER: The author is solely responsible for the views expressed in this article. The author carries the responsibility for citing and/or licensing of images utilized within the text.