Asian Conflict: Qui Bono?
In a war between Civilizational siblings, the West will be the winner!
Everyone is keen on understanding the Indo-Chinese conflict and discussing the merits and demerits of each country. We are discussing the end games of such localized conflicts and wondering what is the chance of winning for each party.
The larger question is: who wins? If India and China get into a war, will either of them be decisive winners? The short answer is no. For reasons that have been discussed in detail elsewhere, India and China are almost equally matched in their usable forces at this point. While the results of the individual battles may vary, the war is likely to end with no winners.
However, there will be a clear winner: the West. In the past 20 years, the West has seen its importance and leverage in geopolitics diminish gradually to a point where many former colonial powers are struggling to keep their own boat afloat. The rise of China as a manufacturing hub, and India as an IT hub, has robbed many developed countries of their economic growth in this time period. With wealth, these countries have also started asserting their place in a multi-polar world. Many countries in the Western world have been shadowed by the growth stories of India and China. Rightly, this is called the Asian century.
With a loss of geopolitical stature, comes the loss of power. As someone who has wielded considerable power in the past, the West is loathe to lose it to Asians [of all races]. This resentment means that the West will be looking forward to a full-fledged war between China and India. They will happily supply weapons to both parties, and watch as these two giants slash each other in their hamstrings.
A full-fledged war can be expected to push back both countries by at least two decades in terms of economic might – if not more. It will also roil them in internal strife, and curtail their ability to project power outwards. The West becomes the center of the world – yet again.
In this game of warring civilizational siblings, there is a clear winner. It is neither the Elder India nor the younger China, but the outsider West. This isn’t to say China must be allowed to run amok with its rabid expansionism. But, any war must consider our own ability to bounce back without losing three decades of eco-development or the momentum.
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