Otherwise a Settled routine state of affair in the Middle East is witnessing some twist with unpredictable consequences. The Trump era in the US is an old story, when the no war was an unstated state Policy and consequences were soothing in the Middle East. Except for localized belligerence in Yemen and Syria, the cross border diplomatic engagements were on predictable lines. Even Iran, whose animosity with western world and especially with the US was an open secret, yet it was contained within a limit all through those days.
But the unfolding development in the last few weeks had been in absolute contrast. The US certainly holds the key to many surprises emerging in such a scenario. President Biden delayed the customary Tele call to its traditional allies like Jordan, Israel and Saudi post assuming the power was certainly a surprise if not a jolt. Consequent restless of allies were palpable. The allies tried its best to conceal the diplomatic embarrassment of struggle in normalizing these non-trivial issues. Quite late, the customary call did happen but the scale of engagement was diametrically as opposed to the tradition. No one can deny that there is a huge strategic stake of two of its allies Israel and Saudi while admitting it is not so for Jordan. The former two countries are getting open challenges from common adversary Iran. While Israel does have a geographical distance, Yet, it is encountering routine Iranian Verbal fusillades and Hezbollah Militia intermittent fire causing stir all the while. Saudi is somewhat sandwiched between Houthi of Yemen and ISIS operating from Iraq. Fact that both of them are getting strategic assistance from Iran.
Uncharacteristic to its tradition, emerging talk of military alliance among Saudi, UAE, Bahrain and Israel rolls out a different political alignment. Despite holding historical oppositions and disagreement on many sectarian sensitive issues, the hostile neighbours like Iran and Turkey are forcing them to change the strategic alignment. The role of the US all this while had remained unspoken and ambiguous. It had not been very charitable with the present Saudi dispensation in the last few weeks on account of Saudi record on human rights issues.
The traditional animosity between US and Iran is set to be more strident and acrimonious. The US recently bombarded and pulverized the Hezbollah base in Syria, which was suspected to be behind the recent attack on a US military base in Iraq. Iran in return has refused to engage with the West and US on the broken nuclear treaty. The stalemate is gradually slipping into the wrong trajectory.
It was only a day before yesterday, When Israel made a fresh round of Aerial bombing again at Iran backed Hezbollah in Syria for settling the alleged attack on its Ship around Oman.
It is not even 3 month of US President Biden in the office, and all the Middle East fire power is returning to vicious engagement. Oil used to galvanize the combined interest of the World into the Middle East. But post covid-19, the economy of all the nations have sent a hawkish wave. How the world will unfold and the Middle East will respond is a million dollar question. But the apparent trajectory is towards perilous confusion and Chaos.
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