Post 1960s – what is the single most reason behind the radicalization of Islam? Answer is: Petro Dollars. Most of the ARAB countries have been provided with huge reserves of Oil. they simply sell crude oil and enjoy on that money.
Same is the case with Russia. Along with Oil, Russia also has one more avenue of earning i.e. arms.
The ARAB nations and Russia have formed a cartel (called the OPEC+) which fixes how much Oil to drill, thereby controlling the prices.
How does a cartel operate? Lets say in a market, all the traders join hands to fix process, disallow new entrants and thereby denying the customers from benefiting from the competition. The OPEC+ led by Saudi and Russia operates exactly in the same manner. Hence, they are able to suck the hard earned money form the world.
Not only that, It is also said that the Oil Lobby has prevented the research of alternate sources of energy so far. It was as late as 2010s that we are hearing about EVs.
If Russia loses what will happen?
With reduction of Russian influence, the process to find viable alternatives to Petroleum will expediate.
Alternatives to petroleum are
- Solar energy
- Wind energy
- Hydrogen energy
- Fusion Energy
Research on all the above areas will increase. India is more focusing on green Hydrogen which is being spearheaded by Mukesh Ambani. Hence it is no surprise the Russian controlled Media is anti Ambani.
Once, a viable alternate to Oil is found, ARABs will start starving and cannot afford to maintain the same standard of living.
Lets analyze the impact of this on various regions of world.
- India, EU, China, SE Asia etc.: These countries import most of their oil and gas and hence will gain the most. With this new technology, these countries will save a lot of foreign reserves which could be used for development of infrastructure, public welfare etc.
- Americas: Though US/Canada produces a lot of Oil, US economy is diversified and hence wont be affected, rather it will benefit (US is a big energy consumer). Barring Venezuela, no other country is dependent on Oil. And hence, these countries are all set to benefit.
- Africa: Barring few north African countries, many other countries import Oil and hence are set to benefit.
- Arab World (and to a great extent Russia): In nutshell, this part of the world , especially the Arab world is all set to suffer the most. I will explain how below:
Gradually after the discovery of the Oil in middle east countries and in Russia, dictators seized power and took control of all oil resources. Most Russian Oligarch who have been groomed by Putin have made money from Oil and Gas.
In order to maintain their hold on power, they provided all kind freebies to people. Due to abundance of petro-dollars, the people literally stopped working and all the work was done by workers from foreign countries. Starting from cleaners, plumbers to project managers all are foreigners. We all know the money they spend in extravagance. Even the women in Saudi don’t cook anymore, women from countries like say Sri Lanka do the work. To further cement the power, the rulers maintained close relations with Ulema (mullah, mufti etc.) and also started spending a big chunk of money on terrorism.
Lets see what will happen to ARABs after the flow of petro-dollars stop:
- They wont be able to hire workers from foreign countries. And by now they have lost the habit of working and hence the society will find it extremely difficult to sustain itself.
- Many countries are sponsoring multiple terrorist groups. For e.g. Iran is funding Hezbollah. Once the money reduces/vanishes, they will turn against their “dictatorial sponsors” just as Osama Bin Laden turned against US. US had the might to destroy Osama, but without oil these countries wont be able to defeat those groups and lose power to such groups.
- All dictators will vanish, but we cant say if the society will transition to democracy or not.
- Today, Ulemas, madrassas etc. are funded by petro-dollars. Once that stops, the Ulemas will start turning against their sponsors and this may turn out to be a big crisis for Islam.
- I know many Arab men have extravagant sex (Hyderabad has become such a hub for Mutta marriages). Once oil money reduces, you never know, rapes will sky rocket in Arab society.
The Arab people cannot even lead a pre-oil-era nomadic life as that life is extremely hard and the people have gotten used to comforts.
With all of the above, Jihadism will implode and will vanish from earth.
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