I was going through an article recently on a Right-leaning portal portending rise of China as global numero uno. That got me thinking -has anyone ever won world domination as a prize in direct contest ? I don’t trust my knowledge of ancient world after shockers received on AIT. Let’s talk about situation following rise of Islam. Islam and Papal forces remained locked in crusades over a 1000 year for global domination. But it the unheralded Mongols which created the biggest empire in world going from Far-East to Turkey. Even today nobody can boast of a bigger empire. Busy in crusades, Christians and Muslims did not had enough dry gunpowder to counter storm raising from East.
Cut to 17th century, could you predict rise of England as superpower within 200 years ? Spanish and French were fighting for world domination till Nepolianic wars. At the end of Waterloo war in 1815, French, who were in pole position to takeover from Spain were sidelined as inferior power to Great Britain while Spain no different than a British colony. Same story repeated in first quarter of 20th century where Germans were trying to upstage Britain for dominance while actual cake was grabbed by United States. Point to be noted that United States was on British side while displacing them. For all said and done, USSR remained No. 2 to US in world supremacy till eventually defeated in 1989.
Traditionally, Chinese have possessed a great sense of history and irony must not be lost on Red leaders. That also explain Deng’s famous quote – ‘ lie low and bide your time’. Unfortunately for China, Demise of USSR came 3 decades too early. There is extremely low chance for China to become world power as there is no dry gunpowder. US (and world) has identified China as dark empire to be defeated.
Think of it. Key characteristics of new superpower during transition whenever it took place:-
- Capability of maintaining equal distance from old power and challenger though with clear sympathies to old power and apprehension about new power.
- Too much of civilisational pride to accept hegemony of any side.
- History of conflict with old power.
- Natural barriers protecting homeland from actual destruction of conflict, specially from challenger
- A popular political and military leadership though accountable to people of the homeland.
- Joining conflict is hailed as benign action and act of saviour.
- New to big league but touted as next big thing in geopolitical games.
- Popular support for military action against challenger.
Cut to 2020, can you think of any country with high economic growth, strong military and endless Human Resources that can emerge out as global superpower from ongoing power struggle between China and US?
Keep thinking. Odds are in favour.
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