Americans are going to 2020 Presidential Election on Nov 3, 2020. It is considered an historical election. Truly so. It is a choice between political promises of a career politician who has been in politics  for 47 years and performance of a businessman turned politician who has been in politics for 4 years.

What concerns most the middle class Americans? Jobs. Jobs, Jobs!

The Natural Rate of Unemployment in USA has been 5%- 5.5%. The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. In simple words, the natural rate of unemployment signifies the rate of unemployment with which the economy is considered in the state of full employment, because a certain per cent of working age Americans would not like to take up employment for whatever reason.

Let’s take a look at select data points of rate of unemployment in USA.

September 200910%
September 20165%
September 20194%
September 20207.9%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics;

This above data highlight as follows:

  1. President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden brought down rate of unemployment in U.S. Economy from 10% to 5% in 8 years.
  2. President Trump and Vice President Pence brought down rate of unemployment in U.S. economy from 5% to 4% in 3 years.
  3. You know well 1% reduction from 5% is much more challenging than 10% to 9%.
  4. Needless to say, dipping rate below natural rate of unemployment is an HISTORIC FACT.
  5. The Great Recession of 2007-09 was called by some economist Black Swan event. Black Swan is a completely unexpected event.
  6. If you read research published by Alan Taylor in 2012, it may not be correct to call Great Recession of 2007-09, a Black Swan event.
  7. But 2020 Coronavirus is certainly a Black Swan event.
  8. The rate of unemployment had suddenly jumped in April 2020 to 14.7%. Now read 7.9% of September 2020 vis-à-vis 14.7% of April, 2020; cutting to half in 6 months during a Black Swan event.
  9. It is certainly an historic election.

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