In an ironic twist of events, yesterday’s happenings in Moscow clearly showed who is getting cornered. After India said it won’t be a part of the military games which China is a part of, and in parallel, conducted military drills with Russia in the Indian Ocean, the writing was clear on the wall.

Chinese strategy is simple. You advance inch by inch and then recede a few inches by demanding both sides withdraw at the same time – in effect, the side didn’t advance those inches will lose the land. Else, what can explain the fact that China is deep inside Indian claim lines but still wants India to recede even further back?

The domestic situation in China coupled with an anti-Chinese sentiment, especially in the post-COVID world means China needs a diversion – a really massive diversion which can reestablish it’s position in the post-Cold War world order. The natural choice is India – inflict a defeat on India and make the weaker countries in the neighbourhood toe the Chinese line. But, things always don’t work in the Chinese way.

The main reason for that, actually, lies in the concept of Communism itself. Whatever Communism is, it has got two fundamental flaws – no dissent, censorship. Had China not censored it’s performance against India in 1967 or 1987, the situation would have been far better. But, Chinese are made to read only about the 1959 Conquest of Tibet and the crushing blow China inflicted on India in 1962. When China refuses to learn from the mistakes of the past and models it’s plans based on the hand-picked incidents which favoured it, how will it be in a position to estimate the actual outcome of the events?

That’s exactly what happened – Galwan first, and then in the vicinity of Pangong Tso. China hasn’t banked on two important things – what if Indians are proactive, and what if Indians are not in a mood to follow Chinese plans and strategies.

While India didn’t follow up on the successes in the Galwan Valley incident, it is surprised to notice that China learnt nothing from the incident – there is a line which they can never cross. Talks went on for months, everyone made their plans, fully knowing the talks will lead nowhere, but when China tried to threaten Chusul one of the nerve centres of India’s position in that area, India decided to act. It’s immaterial to us what happened and how it happened. All that matters is the fact that India reacted to the Chinese actions and captured a few dominating hill-top positions, some of them for the first time after 1962. This has compromised the Chinese position seriously – giving India visual intelligence over vaste swathes of Chinese theatre of operation.

Predictably, China went into a panic mode, issuing four statements in the first 24 hours after the clash

and during Indian Defence Minister’s visit to SCO, requested for a bilateral meet.

One may want to argue that the talks between Indian and Chinese Armies in Ladakh are serious enough to warrant a breakthrough.

But, is it that simple? What transpired in Moscow, may be, will help us understand how the talks will go? A meeting was requested by the Chinese at the last moment in Moscow, which India accepted. Ignoring all the rhetoric before this meeting,

it makes much sense for us to understand what happened through this meeting. And predictably, besides the formal communication by Indian Government and a note by the Chinese mouthpieces, we have nothing much.

The formal communique by India posted through the official Twitter handle of India’s Defence Ministry reads thus –

The meeting between Raksha Mantri Shri @rajnathsingh and Chinese Defence Minister, General Wei Fenghe in Moscow is over. The meeting lasted for 2 hours and 20 minutes. Raksha Mantri Shri @rajnathsingh met General Wei Fenghe, State Councillor and Defence Minister of China on 4th September in Moscow on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting. The two Ministers had frank and in-depth discussions about the developments in the India-China border areas as well as on India-China relations. Raksha Mantri categorically conveyed India’s position on the developments along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) including in the Galwan valley in the Western Sector of the India-China Border Areasin the last few months. RM emphasised that the actions of the Chinese troops, including amassing of large number of troops, their aggressive behaviour and attempts to unilaterally alter the status quo were in violation of the bilateral agreements. RM stated clearly that while the Indian troops had always taken a very responsible approach towards border management, but at the same time there should also be no doubt about our determination to protect India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. RM said that both sides should take guidance from the consensus of the leaders that maintenance of peace and tranquillity in the India-China border areas was essential for the further development of bilateral relations & that2 sides should not allow differences to become disputes. RM advised that it was important therefore that Chinese side should work with the Indian side for complete disengagement at the earliest from all friction areas including Pangong Lake as well as de-escalation in border areas in accordance with the bilateral agreements & protocols. RM further said that the current situation should be handled responsibly and that neither side should take any further action that could either complicate the situation or escalate matters in the border areas. Raksha Mantri conveyed that the two sides should continue their discussions, including through diplomatic and military channels, to ensure complete disengagement and de-escalation and full restoration of peace and tranquillity along the LAC at the earliest.

But, the Chinese tone and tenor was different – in fact, it’s completely opposite to the body language of the Chinese Defence Minister in the meeting. For example, quoting Global Times,

Qian said that Indian media reports on the meeting are full of false information, including that China frequently “required” the meeting, or that India refused a meeting with China. The disinformation may have been revealed by some Indian officials on purpose to portray the government as “tough” in safeguarding its sovereignty to its people.

After the meeting, Indian media may also come up with more vivid reports on “China makes compromises under Indian pressure,” or “India barely agrees to meet for regional peace,” Qian said…It is clear that India is the one that is making provocations and should take responsibility for the increased tensions. India is attempting to pressure China – using aggressive military deployment along the border – in the hope of gaining an upper hand in the negotiations, but also sending soft signals to the international community, trying to downplay its aggressive actions, Qian told the Global Times...Since China and India agreed to settle their disputes through the current bilateral coordination system, Russia’s friendly gesture could further facilitate the talks between China and India, Qian said, noting that India’s recent moves along the border areas have not helped defuse tensions.

Nothing comes out of China without state consent, especially if it is from a news outlet formally marked as China state-affiliated media.

The verdict is clear. India says China is to be blamed but talks of non-military options, but China clearly says India should vacate the area. In fact, it’s the same language both sides used and it clearly hints that there was no breakthrough. India is ready to yield a few inches but China wants to yield none.

RM emphasised that the actions of the Chinese troops, including amassing of large number of troops, their aggressive behaviour and attempts to unilaterally alter the status quo were in violation of the bilateral agreements.

India is attempting to pressure China – using aggressive military deployment along the border – in the hope of gaining an upper hand in the negotiations, but also sending soft signals to the international community, trying to downplay its aggressive actions

Does this mean China is waiting for the October-December window for attacking India and extract it’s pound of flesh and is just passing time till then, trying to humour Indians and lull them into a false sense of security? What is going to happen to the meeting between the Foreign Ministers of both the countries in a week? Besides the futility of the meetings, this makes one wonder if the Chinese side really has the authority to take a decision or the word has already come from Beijing over what China is expecting from India and there is no turning away from that, even if it means open rupture?

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