Friends, have you watched the movie “The Impossible Spy” based on a true story? An Israeli spy named “Eli Cohen” is all set to become the defense minister of arch-enemy Syria, but at the end momment, due to sheer carelessness, he is caught and subsequently hanged to death in full public view. The world recognizes him today as the best spy of the modern world.

I have a better espionage story to tell you today and I am sure over few dacades times there will be a movie made on this. And, here it goes:

A girl is born in Italy way back in 1946. Her father served the in Benito Mussolini’s army and was captured by Red Army of USSR. But unlike other PoWs who served long sentences, the person was released much earlier – no one knows why and what was the deal. Time passes by, a boy of the most powerful political family goes to London to study, there he falls in love with this girl and gets married.

The girl moves to India along with her husband and gives birth to 2 children and she and her husband is squarely out of politics. The politics is now managed by her mother-in-law and brother-in-law(Deavr as called in Hindi). But events soon turn in India, there is emergency in India, the draconian anti-democratic 39th and 42th contituional amendments are put in place(I will talk about these amendments later). The unpopularity of goverment soars and it ultimately loses power. The new goverment promptly passes the 43rd and 44th constitutional amendments. reverting the 39th and 42nd amendments. However, the govt. doesnt last long and her mother-in-law comes back to power after a span of 3 years.

However, shortly after, her devar dies while flying his own plane. The intersting point to note is that the plane was a brand new one(and hence chances to technical malfunction is low), later investigations reveal that the plane had crashed due to low fuel, though checking the fuel is a standard procedure before allowing any plane to fly.

Barely, 3-4 years later her mother-in-law is shot dead by her bodyguards. The point to note here, inspite of her receiving multiple rounds of bullets, she was not taken in an ambulance but in a car by her only. So, what happened is inevitable, she died in the car. Next, obvious thing happens, her husband becomes the PM. I wont go over his tenure as PM, but after 4-5 years her husband dies in a suicide attack. Point to note here is: she used to accompany her husband in most/all election campaigns till date, but was absent in this one particularly.

In the mean time, it said that the USSR spy agency KGB deposits $2B in her minor son’s account. But soon USSR collapses, and it is rumoured in the espionage world that several “deep assets” created by KGB were taken over by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). “Deep Assets” mean the core persons hired/deployed for long term by spy agencies at critical positions.

Fast forward…her party comes to power, a loyalist is made the PM, but the loyalist betrays her. Swift punishment comes, the loyalist is thrown to jail and his body dishounoured even after his death. This lady eventually becomes the President of the oldest political party which comes to power and stays in power during 2004-2014 with a lame duck PM unlike during 1991-96.

What happens now during 2004-14 is intresting:

  1. Trade deficit with China: “Trade Deficit” = “Value(in $) of items imported from China – Value(in $)of items exported to China”. From 1950-2004 the trade deficit with China was very marginal and has almost seen 0% growth, at times it was negative. India exported nearly the same amount of goods that it imported from China. But come 2004, the trade deficit starts skyrocketing. Chinese goods start swarming Indian markets. Many Indian industries (one such example the micro industries making Diyas) vanish. Chinese forex reserves stand today at ~2 trillion USD. By my estimates, half of this amount has gone from India. And not to mention, the money made by Chinese Industries, No. of billionaries in China skyrocketed due to the money from India. I dont think the Chinese goods flooding the Indian market from 2005 is not a “mere” coincidence. At such large level nothing happens “coincidently”. And, to add, the slope of trade deficit becomes negative first in 2019.
  2. Chinese Blue water Naval expansion in Indian Ocean Region(IOR): For any country to be influential, it needs a Navy and hence it is no coincidence that the Cholas, Ottomans, British and now the Americans always kept a potent navy. And right from Chola days, the world understood the importance of IOR as a critical trading rate. And thats why whoever ruled the sub continenet kept control on IOR (Cholas, Mughals and British alike). India will be dead fish without control in IOR. And coming back, Chinese put the “String of Pearls” strategy to establish critical/strategic naval bases in IOR. And all these happened in this period(2004-14). For e.g. SriLanka started construction of Hambantota port at its southern tip taking loans from China. Srilanka was unable to pay loans and hence, the port was leased to China for 99 years. China can possibly put naval ships hardly 400-500 kms from Tamil Nadu. Second, in the same time a staunch pro-chinese govt. gets elected in Maldives (a very important position in IOR). China here also gives loans to build infrastructure, Maldvies is unable to pay it back. Also, China to some extent is entreched in Dijobti (Africa), Chittangong (Bangladesh). All these happened in this period. India did little, In other words it let china encircle India in IOR. After 2014, India has been able to move the countries in IOR away from China’s orbit to some extent but the damage is done and will take very long time to heal.
  3. Chinese Influence on Nepal: India has a roti-beti and deep cultural relationship with Nepal. Mother Sita was a Nepali. The musk for Lord Jagannath in Puri is sent by Nepal King and Nepal King is the only king apart from king of Puri who is allowed to enter the Jagannath temple under his own royal umbrella. Hence, there is no doubt how deep the Indo-Nepal ties go. Around 2008-09, the pro-India monarchy is abolished, Nepal ceases to be a Hindu country, and eventually pro-chinese communist party grabs to power in Nepal. Not to mention, every one understands the how Nepal is strategically importance India.
  4. Corruption: This breaks a country and makes it weak. I dont need to write much about this as this is wide in public view.

Will end here, I leave it to your judgement and wisdom to comment on the above theory and if the above spy story worth deserves a movie or not.

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